(NewsInsights.org) – Japan and South Korea are struggling to overcome a fertility crisis that some officials are already predicting will lead to a total demographic collapse in the coming years. Birth rates across both regions have fallen sharply over the past decade, aging the population while also creating a severe shortage of workers and straining social services.
Statistics from 2023 show that over 30% of Japanese citizens and 18% of South Koreans were over the age of 65 at any given point in time. Yet total fertility rates (TFR) came in at a mere 1.2 and 0.78 per woman for the same timeframe. That means neither country is producing children at a fast enough rate to sustain the population properly.
Experts estimate that a nation needs to maintain a TFR of at least 2.1 to maintain or grow citizenship without experiencing losses over time. This figure accounts for natural population fluctuations due to deaths from accidents, old age, and other causes, as well as migration.
A TFR that is only slightly below 2.1 will often lead to stagnation but rarely causes a true emergency, as there is still time to address the problem. In the case of Japan and South Korea, rates are so dramatically low that officials worry it may already be too late.
University of Wisconsin-Madison demographer Yi Fuxian confirmed these sentiments in an exchange with Newsweek. “It’s too late for Japan,” he explained, “and it’s even worse for South Korea and China.”
All three countries have poured millions of dollars into programs aimed at encouraging young people to marry and have children in recent years. Yet, sponsored matchmaking events, cash bonuses for parents, childcare funding, and even government-backed marriage apps have done little to convince young adults to link up and start families so far.
Confoundingly, the issues associated with low birth rates can create a vicious cycle that self-perpetuates over time. Dwindling fertility leads to worker shortages, straining the economy and social safety nets. The resulting financial insecurity increases poverty rates, further discouraging families from having children.
The potential for disaster is exactly what led South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to label the problem a “national emergency” earlier this year. But while he and other government leaders continue to work hard to address the decline, it’s difficult to predict if their efforts will produce results in time.
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