(NewsInsights.org) – In June, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan gave a comprehensive overview of the global nuclear outlook and the declining levels of security and stability for the Arms Control Association annual forum. Since February, Russia has systematically suspended or abandoned arms agreements, giving rise to renewed fears of a possible nuclear confrontation.
In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended his country’s participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II), blaming the US and NATO allies for trying to undermine Russian national security. In October, at Putin’s urging, the Duma, the ruling government body, voted to revoke the nation’s ratification of the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) following statements by the Russian president that the Kremlin might consider resuming nuclear weapons testing.
On November 2, Russia announced it had revoked the CTBT ratification. Less than a week later, on November 7, Moscow announced its withdrawal from the Treaty of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), which prevented Cold War rivals from building up troops near mutual borders. The Kremlin blamed NATO’s ever-westward infringement on Russia’s border for its withdrawal.
Finally, on November 9, Moscow notified Tokyo it was terminating a 1993 agreement between the Russian Federation and the Japanese government to cooperate in eliminating nuclear weapons.
While some interpreted the series of moves as a Russian game of chess calculated to gain Moscow a strategic advantage in eventual negotiations with Ukraine, others, Like President Joe Biden, remained convinced that Putin’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine constituted a “real” danger.
The Science and Security Board in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists issued an article in January 2023, before Russia had withdrawn from the agreements, setting the 2023 Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight — signaling that the world had reached the closest point to global disaster since the clock’s inception. Factors in the board’s decision included Russia’s threats to use nuclear weapons in the conquest of Ukraine and the clumsy and haphazard offensives on Zaporizhzhia and Chernobyl nuclear reactor sites, violating international safety protocols.
Additionally, Russia has perpetuated a concerning stream of disinformation about Ukraine’s alleged development and implementation of bioweapons, raising concerns that the Kremlin could deploy such weapons.
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