(NewsInsights.org) – High-level Democratic insiders, including operatives close to the White House, reportedly feel a rising sense of doom and panic based on the strong polling numbers that presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump continues to post. However, advisors have spoken anonymously to media outlets about their concerns.
One White House confidante spoke with POLITICO and explained that no one wants to be the person who openly admits “‘‘we’re doomed,’ or ‘the campaign’s bad,’ or ‘Biden’s making mistakes.’ Nobody wants to be that guy.” However, he admitted that Biden’s poor polling numbers are causing a “freakout” among some campaign advisors who remain genuinely concerned that “democracy might end” if Biden loses to Trump.
Publicly, Biden has argued that he’s improving in polls and has pointed to the April PBS/Marist survey as one example. Privately, the president and some campaign staff have chosen to ignore poll results. A Biden campaign spokesperson told POLITICO that election day was “The only metric that will define the success of this campaign.”
The New York Times analyzed 19 elections between 1936 and 2012 and the Gallup polling data preceding those elections. The outlet argued that while “polls reflect a snapshot in time” and don’t always capture the whole picture, as a body of data over time, they showed patterns. In 14 of the 19 races, the eventual winner was already leading polls by June of the election year.
Yet, Democratic strategists argue that the White House is ignoring polling at its own risk — during an election where the stakes are running very high. One Biden campaign advisor, Pete Giangreco, told POLITICO he believed a path to a win still existed, but he remained concerned that the campaign was framing its message wrong for voters.
Giangreco argued that asking voters to compare their personal experiences of more than three years of economic recovery under Biden to four years of economic boom under Trump would result in a Biden loss “every day of the week and twice on Sunday.”
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