A fresh Florida poll put Angie Nixon and Ashley Moody in a 45%–45% dead heat, and that single number just changed the race.
Story Snapshot
- St. Pete Polls found a 45%–45% tie among likely voters in Florida’s U.S. Senate race.
- The unrounded result gave Moody a 0.4-point edge, which rounded to a tie.
- Other recent polls show Moody ahead by mid-single to high-single digits.
- Analysts still rate the overall picture as a modest Republican lead, not a flip.
Tied headline collides with a wider Moody lead
Florida Politics reported a new St. Pete Polls survey that shows Republican Senator Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon each at 45% among likely general election voters. The outlet added that Moody led by four-tenths of a point before rounding, which is why the top-line reads as a tie. That single data point cut through the noise because most recent surveys still show Moody with a cushion. The split between the headline tie and the average is the real tension.
The Florida polling average still places Moody ahead. Pollsmax lists a mid-single-digit Republican edge and projects a result in that range if the election were today. That average blends multiple polls using time weights and adjustments and shows Moody hovering near or above the key 49% mark while Nixon lags behind. The average is not a forecast of momentum, but it is a sturdier frame than any one poll. This is why veterans warn against chasing the shiniest topline.
Quantus and Change Research polls sketch the other side
A Quantus Insights survey released days earlier put Moody at 50% and Nixon at 43% among likely voters, a seven-point lead consistent with the broader set. A Change Research poll sponsored by Freedom Project USA showed a 47%–47% tie around the same time, giving Democrats a counterexample to point to. The back-to-back split result—one tie, one Moody +7—captures the range of this race and exposes how sampling and voter screens can swing headlines.
Method details and likely voter screens matter more than the banner number. Florida Politics itself flagged concerns about the Change Research likely voter screen in its “Salt Shaker” review, even while reporting the tie. That does not erase the finding, but it does set a caution sign next to it. Common sense says hold any outlier next to the body of evidence and ask whether it fits the state’s recent voting habits and turnout structure.
What the tie does and does not mean
The St. Pete Polls tie tells two clear stories at once. First, Nixon can reach parity in a real sample of likely voters, which will energize Democrats and donors. Second, Moody’s position near 50% in other polls remains a higher hurdle for Democrats, because candidates near the majority often need fewer undecided voters to close the deal. A tie born from rounding does not cancel that math. It simply shows the lane for a close finish exists.
Poll after poll shows it — @AngieNixon can win Florida’s U.S. Senate race.
While the political establishment was writing Florida off, Angie has been building a true grassroots movement for a Florida we can actually afford and an end to Moody’s blatant corruption.
Lock in y’all. https://t.co/x7faj4JlNV
— Oliver Larkin (@OliverALarkin) September 18, 2026
For conservatives, the takeaway is sober and simple. Florida still leans right statewide, and the average keeps Moody in front. For Democrats, the map is not locked. A tied poll is a green light to press issues that win suburban moderates and hold Miami-Dade margins. Both sides should expect late movement among older voters and irregular midterm voters. The side that banks votes early and stays disciplined on crime, prices, and insurance shocks likely owns the final week.
Sources:
mediaite.com, floridapolitics.com, floridaphoenix.com
